Global travel market bracing itself for 'Trump Downturn'
by Tom Anstey | 08 Nov 2016
A Trump win could have a disastrous effect on the global tourism market
Analysts have predicted that a Donald Trump win in today’s (8 November) US Presidential election would have a similar effect to the UK’s Brexit vote, with the potential result sending shockwaves worldwide thanks to a weakened dollar.
Speaking at the World Travel Market in London, Caroline Bremner, head of travel for market research firm Euromonitor, explained that its economists had created two models based on the result of the US election, with a Trump win spelling misery for the US and its overseas travel markets.
“At Euromonitor our economists have created a Trump scenario, which is called the Trump Downturn,” she said. “Based on what would happen if Donald Trump wins today’s election, it would reduce the US economy over the next five year by just under 5 per cent, meaning that instead of a predicted growth of 1.5 to 2 per cent for 2017, the US economy would have marginal growth - around about 0.3 per cent next year. When the US economy slows, that has a drag effect on the global economy.”
According to Euromonitor, a potential Trump win would echo the effects of the UK’s decision to leave the European Union, with the shock to the US political system having a knock-on effect for the economy.
“Ultimately we could see the dollar depreciate just as we saw with the pound,” she said. “When the dollar depreciates that means US travellers have less money to travel abroad. It’s good for the domestic economy tourism-wise but not great for the outbound market.”
With the UK still reeling from the effects of Brexit, a similar set of circumstances for the US would be doubly hard for the country, with the country being its largest spender. According to Bremner, the UK wouldn’t be the only nation to feel the pinch, with the US being the number one outbound market globally.
The other model, which predicts a win for Hillary Clinton, is the preferred result for the tourism and travel market, with the result meaning stabilisation.
“If it’s a Clinton win, that’s the status quo, a continuation of the policies to date”, said Bremner. “Barack Obama came in and wasn’t convinced by the travel and tourism industry, but under his tenure, he created Brand USA and set a target to achieve 100 million visitors over the next 5 to 10 years. His initiatives have helped to boost the appeal of the US as a destination, which has so far been a success.”
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Analysts have predicted that a Donald Trump win in today’s (8 November) US Presidential election would have a similar effect to the UK’s Brexit vote, with the potential result sending shockwaves worldwide thanks to a weakened dollar. Speaking at the World Travel Market in London, Caroline Bremner, head of travel for market research firm Euromonitor, explained that its economists had created two models based on the result of the US
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